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Friday, September 17, 2004

Nominee for September Understatement of the Month:
Kerry Trails Bush by 8 Points in New Poll and Faces Obstacles
:

This is in the body of the article. (Nevermind, the flap of Bush's TANG revolves around forgeries and not his service.)

"More than 60 percent of respondents said Mr. Kerry was either 'hiding something' or 'mostly lying' in discussing his service in Vietnam. At the same time, 71 percent said that Mr. Bush was 'hiding something' or 'mostly lying' in talking about his Vietnam-era service in the National Guard, which has been the subject of news accounts raising questions about how he got a coveted out-of-combat guard assignment and whether he turned up for duty."

As is my habit, I attempt to read the actual poll questions, so I found the one from which this paragraph derived. The question was:

66. In his statements about his service in the National Guard, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

Entire truth 20%
Hiding Something 51%
Mostly lying 20%
DK/NA 9

The difference between the question asked and the result presented in the article is night and day. Basically, they asked if Bush is telling the truth or mostly doing so (71%), but ANougourney threw the out the qualifier, "mostly telling the truth but". As a result, this allows the 51% to be included with the mostly lying respondents and leads the reader to conclude the hidden things relate to lying versus telling the truth.

Simple. No nuancing needed. Sometimes simple is better and more intelligent.

To make matters worse, the same categorizations were used to ask a question about Iraq.

76. When he talks about the war in Iraq, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the turth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

Entire truth 26%
Hiding Something 49%
Mostly lying 21%
DK/NA 3%

77. When he talks about how things are going for the US in Iraq today, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the turth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

Entire truth 20%
Hiding Something 51%
Mostly lying 24%
DK/NA 4%

Here is the article's summary:

"About 80 percent of respondents said that Mr. Bush was either "hiding something" or "mostly lying" in talking about the war in Iraq."

Nevermind, ANougourney lumped the DK/NA in with the "...Hiding Something (ellipsis mine)" and "mostly lying".

Unfortunately, I believe Mr. Kurtz's explanation of liberal bias int he media is dead on. The regular readership of the NYT wants to be told things in this manner.






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