Thursday, September 30, 2004

Wow. Peggy Noonan just said Kerry slithers out of positions.

My general take on the post-debate punditry is that Kerry won. I wonder whether that will be CW or an example of the liberal media projecting their own desires?

Bush must have been pissed the Kery campaign revolves around denigrating the handling of Iraq without realizing that his denigrations occur in the real world and have effects on those actually doing something.

This is also a good explanation of Bush's teethgrinding.

I hate that tucked thumb gesture.

Kerry spoke well. Good presentation, bad positions.

Wow! 43's final statement has been excellent. So far it has been the best I have seen him speak.

Just realized where the warnings lights are. Only took 86 minutes!

(C'mon UCONN! Hold on!)

EXCELLENT rebuttal to bilateral NK talks.

This despite Kerry putting it very well.

Good presentation bad positions. This will be the CW on this debate.

And if anyone thinks "good presentation" on a non-relative basis applies to 43.....

If Kerry brings up the book he wrote in 1997, doesn't he open the door to questioned the policies in that book but also the VVAW book?

Kery opened well the rebuttal of the character question esp the muzzle comment.

Excellent handling of the character question by 43.

Shut down quickly.

Kerry is a very good debater. Unfortunately for him and the Krugmans and MArshalls of the country, the facts will have to be checked.

Kerry is a genuinely good debator. No party lowering of expectations.

Bush is the luckiest man on the planet. He'll not be expected to win the next two.

I understand how libs feel when they say they're smarter.

Kerry made an excellent zinger with the de Gaulle comment (France notwithstanding). Bush just says I'm not searching for global permission.

Excelent on the puppet call and the denigration of Allawi.

Kerry says 43 mislead on Kerry's troop withdrawal. Kerry emphaiszed if his plan works, then 6 months can occur.

Can 43 be anymore perturbed?

Will it be a Zell Miller event?

Kerry has been unflappable. He is smirking though as if he knows it.

43 is obviously perturbed.

LET THE spin wars begin. Righteous anger? Ankle-biting by Kerry?


Good recovery htting Kerry on his ability to get allies after saying it is the wrong war!

43 seems fed up with Kerry's attacks on his job protecting the country.

43 also appears to be grinding his teeth as Kerry speaks. as if he is dealing with a brat in public while trying not to lose patience.

I can't belief there is another 60 minutes of this.

The Persuadables

As this was a news cycle lead yesterday, I thought I'd throw my $0.02 USD on it as it can be easilymisleadling.

First, if 20% of all voters are "persuadable". then AP/Knowledge Networks obtained 6645 respondants to arrive at is sample size of 1329.

What I find implausible is that these 1329 were all recontacted three weeks later. Something does not pass the sniff test. Maybe, just maybe, this explains the math of the 937 "remaining persuadables. These follow-up interviews demonstrated 24% of the initial 1329 had become committed to one or the other candidate (although 18% more committed to Bush! Sorry could not resist the confusion by percentages.) This totals 319 and would leave a reamining 1,010 who are persuadable. 1010 does not equal 937. Where did those 73 respondants go?

Of this 937, 22% are labeled "purely undecided", sub-sample n subscript pu. ( Maybe Dan Rather can offer me some help on subscripting in a blog?)

Sub-sample n subscript pu is 206. To take us back to the beginning, this means of the 6645 original respondants,206 or 3.1% are purely undecided. Does it make any difference what these 3.1% think when Bush is ahead 6-8% points? Even if they all broke for the challenger, Bush would still win.

To break down this 206 even further, as this poll does, into when asked who would handle Iraq best, 20% choose neither candidate. 20% of 206 is 41 (0.16% of original sample)! Can we really say anything about what 41 people will do? Other than saying they will probably never decide!

On a pure methodological basis, I wonder how reliable the operational defintion of "persuadbale is. If it is not very reliable, then this entire poll is GIGO.

New York Post Valdidates My Memory

Here (3/4 down) I call Kerry and the Democrats liars. I guess a more pleasant euphemism would be demagoguers.

Now the NY Post has editorialized it and that was linked here by Rich Lowry.

Hopefully, this will enter the CW, and the persuadables will no longer be so.

Don't Forget Concessions

As an avid sports fan (baseball - Yankees, football - Dolphins, basketball - UCONN, UCONN alum and college football - UCONN), my initial reaction is always, "Tough tooty. If people would pay to watch ice skating, then it'd be subsidized."

That usually suffices to assuage any cognitive dissonace I may experience from exploring issues such as net gains to the community and whether a new stadium is really necessary. (I don't work for a big firm that would throw away, I mean, buy luxury box seating.)

All told, I'd come down on the side of not building a new stadium as I told the pollster when asked about the Jets West Side stadium.

Not that I am against new stadia per se just that I don't see any reason why a new one is necessary.

Back to the title of this post. After getting the local gov't to use tax revenue to build the stadium, the new owners then charge exhorbitant concession prices to boot.

At the first UCONN football game at Rentschler Field last season, I sarcastically quipped that the concession prices were right out of Madison Square Garden. After the game, I picked up a flyer regarding tailgating rules, and read, to my surprise, that the concessions were provided by a firm associated with....Madison Square Garden!!!!

Dick Morris' CW

After several years of credibility degradation, seems to have penetrated back into the CW.

The CW is this:

Anything Kerry says about Iraq contradicts something else he has emphatically said — and irritates either his liberal base or an American majority

JMM: Luntz Out! Now MSNBC Will Be More Slanted To Dems

Frank Luntz was entertaining. He'd say something blatantly pro-Republican based on nothing.

However, he was the a Republican voice in the predominantly Democratic roundtable. I guess Joe Scarborough will be the only one now.

NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell, MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, MSNBC analyst Ron Reagan, “Newsweek” editor Jon Meacham and guests including strategists and advisors from both campaigns. “NBC Nightly News” anchor Tom Brokaw and NBC’s “Meet the Press” moderator and Washington Bureau Chief Tim Russert provide reports following the debates, as will NBC News correspondents covering the campaign including Campbell Brown, Norah O’Donnell, Carl Quintanilla and David Gregory and MSNBC’s Chris Jansing in the “spin room.” MSNBC election analyst and former Howard Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi and Republican election attorney Ben Ginsburg provide additional analysis.

A WaPo Primer for Tonight's First Debate

Somewhat fair in the sense that the Post included some misleadisments from both campaigns.

The inevitable complaint follows (and not the non-sequitor of the votes being "bipartisan".)

Each man blames the other for the recently announced 17 percent jump in 2005 premiums -- and neither is being fair. When Bush accuses Kerry of voting five times to raise premiums, he's counting votes on spending bills that, among other things, retained a formula setting premiums at one-quarter the total cost. In all but one instance, the votes were bipartisan.

Similarly, Bush cannot be blamed for the formula or rising health costs overall. But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, a federal agency, estimated that
9.9 percent of the increase was due to changes in the law Bush signed, namely higher payments to physicians and managed care companies

The increase was 17%. CMMS says 9.9% of that was due to the Prescription drug coverage (What? It ain't free?!?!?!) This means that the rx bill represented 1.68 percentage points of the 17 percentage point increase. That is insignicant. The dollar increase was $11.65 for the 17% increase. ($78.20 -($78.20/ 1.175) = $11.65)


Using WaPo's numbers, the rx bill account for only 20 cents of the increase.

NOW if what WaPo really meant to report was that the CMMS figure was 9.9 percentage points of the 17 percentage point increase, then it is a little more expensive ($11.65 times 9.9/17.5 = $6.59). (But dramatics would have been improved by phrasing it as a 57% of the increase.)

Either way, seniors benefit. It may not be a total free ride but they are certainly getting more than they pay for.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

New Jersey, Overlooked No Longer, Gets a Visit From Edwards

Why can't news organizations just say NJ is becoming competitve because the Democrat governor appointed his skin flautist as head of Homeleand Security?

Why won't the Republicans point out that one's "musical" ability seems to be the qualifying characteristc for the position in a state that lost 700 people in the 9/11 attack?

Democrats made a mistake not denouncing McGreevey. Now they're going to pay the price.

Al Gore, Op-Ed Contributor: How to Debate George Bush

OK, reminding Kerry to treat Bush as a respected opponent is good advice, and given the ad nauseum attacks on Bush's intelligence, contrarian advice at that.

Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeen, back to the same ol', same ol'. Attack him on how he FUBARed the world!

Eviscerated the environment?
Can't win the peace? (whiny hemophiliac-hearted clap trap!)
False premises for war? Isn't this a lip-sticked pig version of "Bush lied!"?

Kerry may do well but that is only because he is such a bad candidate that any semblence of being a human being will redound positively for him.

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall

JMM can affirmatively state aggressive moves the Administration is taking to help shape the debate discussions; yet he only joins Ol' Shifty Eyes in whining about how the Democrats can't do anything about it.

Maybe there are no tactics left after the Earth-scorching the Left has done for four years - liar, Hitler, killed every soldier in Iraq?

Voting history for Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts

'nuff said.

H.R 1308

This is the list of Senators who voted Nay or abstained on the extension of the Relief for Working Family's Tax Act - the one that extends the child tax credit and marriage penalty relief. Both are "middle" class issues.

NAYs ---3
Chafee (R-RI)
Hollings (D-SC)
Snowe (R-ME)

Not Voting - 5
Akaka (D-HI)
Edwards (D-NC)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)

Jeez, if these two can't do photo-op campaigning and manage to handle their Senate jobs, how do we expect them to juggle the ME, Russia, Old Europe, Indo-China, the largest economy on the planet, and Republicans?

The Note: First Source for Political News

This is why Big Media should be afraid, very afraid, of bloggers.

From today's Note:

ABC's polling director says, ""...results present three prime worries for the Kerry camp. ...second is Kerry's weak personal position, which sends him into the debates with a certain lack of good will...."

When I wrote my alternative piece on the Rather/Blair poll last week Scroll 3/4 down to Sept 20 , I concluded:

"While the polls reflects issues in which conventional wisdom dictates that the President should be wary, one has great difficulty concluding that a candidate who enjoys overwhelming approval on issues of character and leadership will falter over the next six weeks."

I'm sure I could work for cheaper and still realize a significant increase over my current comp package.



Ouch on the all-caps.

I disagree on one point. (Not the Singulair one, which my son also uses.)

To say Singulair would not have hit the market, along with many other drugs, is likely not true if one believes the pharma hype that drugs take decades to develop.

In all likelihood, we'd still have seen all the current drugs hit the market.

What we wouldn't have seen are drugs that would hit the market in the future (5years from now? 10? 25?)

This is the danger of controlling Pharma. Not was is already in the pipeline but the unknowable discoveries and advancements that will not be pursued.

Higher Costs, Less Care

What accounts for the rising costs with fewer services (if the allegation is, in fact, true that we receive less for more)?

That money previously spent on care now being eaten by higher premiums went somewhere.

Flirting With Disaster - The vile spectacle of Democrats rooting for bad news in Iraq and Afghanistan. By Christopher?Hitchens

The title says it all, but I have little faith that Democrats will recognize the depravity of their hopes.

The Gay York Times: Voters in 10 States Likely to Ban Gay Marriages

Another article on gay forces marshalling their resources to concentrate on oregon.

For or against the gay agenda, the NYT is clearly the mouthpiece of the movement.

Monday, September 27, 2004

Reporters Put Under Scrutiny in C.I.A. Leak

NYT mentions Joe Lies! Wilson but not the fact hat his allegations were determined to be without merit. In fact, the opposite of his alleagtions were closer to the truth.

I thought this article was going to be a great rowback vehicle.

More Good Polling

ABC/WaPo has Bush up 52-45.

USA Today/CNN/Gallup has Bush up 52-44. Hurray!

And the registered voters results don't differ by much either.

This is Bush's election to lose. Kerry is only a soporific bystander.

From Your Lips to God's Ear

This should be the CW. As it isn't, this should be all one needs to know about Leftist bias.

Lefty Blogs

As I read this article, the overriding thought was "immature". Whether is is Wonkette wanting free drinks and dinner or Josh Marshall's desire for acceptance or Daily Kos's belligerence, I was struck by how immature each seemed.

Kos is yelling at the DCCC chair and bragging about it?

Wonkette is making dick conjectures?

JMM worries about his journalistic street cred? (How's the Joe Wilson Kool-aid taste? Joe Lies!)

Jeez, no wonder the Left has nothing but hate or should I properly phrase it as gratification frustration? (I am reminded of the fits my four-year-old throws when he doesn't get what he wants.)

The disturbing thing is this exactly sums-up the Left.

The NYT did the Left no favors this weekend between the profile on Kerry's lack of management skills to the Week in Review article on his weak "brand" to this cover story in the magazine.

Setting the Bar Low

The Gay Agenda is licking its wounds and hoping for any thread to cling to.

Gay marriage willnot pass in Oregon, cruchiness be damned!

Nor would it pas in NY or CA. That is the dirty secret and is why it can only be implemented via judicial fiat. I've said it before (Damnit! I can't find the link!), the NYT needs more columnists who can marry Chief Justices of the various State Supreme Courts. Mrs. Anthony Lewis


The epithet is much overused, but in this case, it is dead on.

Kerry made it so by conjecturing that their could be a draft. I can conjecture that he is a tax scofflaw as he hasn't had his wife's tax returns released. It could be true.

Charlie Rangel was put at the top iof my shit list when he demagogued the draft issue prior to the start of the war by claiming a draft would keep blacks from dying disproprortionately in any war.

That was the geneisis and rationale for the draft talk - Democrats trying to make the country anti-war. The rotten party.

WaPo Charts

So NYT isn't the only paper that writes and article and provides charts that don't support the written piece.

Who Needs Enemies Part III

I read this Colbert King piece yesterday in the WaPo. Now the WSJ has picked-up the column.

That is a very wide sphere of influence from WaPo to WSJ.

(I know I could be projecting my own beliefs on to both pieces.)

Sunday, September 26, 2004

Who Needs Enemies Part Deux

At least NYT looked for people who had something nice to say - advertising executives! What are they going to suggest? Sexier ads?

Why do the Dems think Iraq, in any shape, is a winner for a man who returned from Vietnam, shat on his fellow soldiers while unwittingly working for the Communists? (See vietnam boat people and Pol Pot)

Also, what makes anyone think the war in Iraq and the War on Terrorism is mutally exclusive?
New Jersey Ain't Buying

Who Needs Enemies....

Gov. Rendell gives-up trying to give Kerry advise because he doesn't listen?

Staffers consider ridding Kerry of his cell a positive in order to keep him from geting more advise?

This article marks the beginning of the end for Kerry. The NYT has turned on him.

There is no other conclussion that can be drawn from this TOTF Sunday piece.

Maybe everyone was reading this Lefty Blogs?

Friday, September 24, 2004

Congress Approves a Bill to Extend Bush's Tax Cuts

A few thoughts:

1. The last time Democrats were free to vote as their election prospects dictated was 2002. This was the nettlesome authority of war vote. (Which was really the authority not to go to war!)

2. Who were the 5 who obstained? Senate Votes

3. Notice the use of "surcharges" in lieu of taxes. Must have been poll-tested and demonstrated that focus groups don't know what they are.

4. Republicans rejected amendments that would have extended the child tax credit to families with incomes just above $10K/year. What is left out is that this is not a tax credit but a credit i.e. a welfare payment.

5. What was the defintion of "modest levels" in the Dem-requested CBO report?

Let'em Pay More for Drugs!

Sadly, the Democrats decided to scorch the Earth ahead of the prescription drug bill. As a result, the elderly (indigent if the tone of the debate reflects truly) will pay more. Nor because of the bill but because of the Democrats' desparate clinging to the issue.

With only a quarter of the projected benficiary's signing-up, I am sure the Administration counted on the various elderly advocacy groups helping.

Unfortunately, the Adminstration clearly miscalculated the advocates concerns for their "constituents" versus their own self-interest.

The only bill that would have garnered support was an unmitigated free ride.

USATODAY Misses a Key Reason for Kerry's NJ Slide

What about the fact that a the governor, A Democrat, put his gay lover at the head of Homeland Security with the sole qualification of having had sex with said Democrat governor??????

Thursday, September 23, 2004

Perfect Election to Vote for Expanding the Two-Party System

With the camera-shy Senator Schumer looking at a 60%+ in the November election, this may be the time to send a message to the NY Republican party that is is too socially "progressive". Vote Dr. Marilyn O'Grady

There is no way it means anything, but it is an easier place to send a message than the POTUS line, which seems, implausibly, to be narrowing. Momentum Ignored by MSM?

Go team!

Scathing. Defintely how I feel about Kerry, irregardless of my opinions of Bush.

Do you know what? This is an issue - a foreign policy one. All the sheep bleating about the campaign being a biographygate need to put down their Kerry pom-poms and report on this issue!


Good for Idema. We need more humint over in Crazy Land.

Just be aware that you will be hung out to dry. Just as it appears Idema was.

Amen, Brother!

Not much I can say about this. It hit too close too home for comment.

I will note that the "New York press" mentioned defintely includes My dear Thulsa Doom and could, if anyone reads it anymore, Proof That a Tree Falling in the Forest Makes No Noise

Reason to Run a TOTF Attack on Current Administration

Why would I title this NYT piece in this manner? Because it is in the postion the paper uses for its top story of the day. (Secrets Revealed!)

This is the not a reason, by itself, to disparage the paper though. What is is the length of the article. Normally, the main news stories in the electronic edition are "Continued" onto another page, usually a second one but sometimes more.

With this piece, it is only one page. It is for this reason that I conclude it was only put in prime paper real estate because it could reflect poorly on the current Administration.

(And my wife is correct. I am too easily upset by the paper:hence, my reference to it as Thulsa Doom, "My child...

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Ann Coulter Proven Correct Again

In Slander, Ms. Coulter put forth the claim that the NYT is used a source of credibility.

Disregarding circular logic, Mr. Kristoff uses the Rather/Blair poll as proof that smears against Kerry are working by citing the "...hiding something (ellipses mine)" question.

Again. The option was "mostly telling the truth but hiding something."

Redefining Sex. Again

Rather and CBS run an attack piece on Bush and both sides are looking for partisan advantage?

Lockheart accuses the Bush campaign of a "smear campaign". The stunning chutzpah (A word that I can't stand to hear spoke. Thank you, Senator Clinton (sic)) would normally make me believe no one would ever take this seriously.

Then I recall Monica Lewinsky. Who would have thought people would vehemntly argue that a married man getting a blowjob was not engaged in "sexual relations"?

Also straining credibility is that a senior level advisor like Lockheart would just call a partisan operative without any knowledge of what would be discussed.

Monica Lewinsky again.

Nevermin McAwful claiming this episode goes to the heart of Bush's character?!?!?!?!?!

An M.B.A. on the Side

First, I went part-time for an MBA and feel as if I missed a lot - clubs, associations, networking, seminars, the whole sha-bang.

OTOH, I believe the PT route may be the only cost effective way to obtain an MBA. And my reasoning becomes self-perpetuating.

As education, and it's sister, professional accreditations, became the pathway towards higher salaries (via promotions or collective bargaining), more people found it necessary to obtain advanced education.

As more and more supply entered the market, the demand side was capable of setting its own terms. As a result, the cost-benefit analysis began to shift from a full-time, loan-laden degree to a part-time, employer-assisted degree where the student maintains there current financial situation.

As the demand side has more and more MBA candidates to chose from, the package offered becomes less and less valuable while the cost for the MBA full-time MBA student continues to increase. Thus making the PT MBA more attractive.

As the PT becomes more fiscally-beneficial, it attracts more and more students who can now afford it.

As more potential students desire the degree based on the quickly deteriorating logic of better salaries, more schools begin to offer the degree.

As more schools offer the degree because their costs are born by employers and smaller loans, more MBAs enter the marketplace.

As more MBAs enter the marketplace, the demand side gains more power to offer less.

U.N. Is For Fools

What did Saddam do with his kickback money? Was he funding anything untoward? If he was, what was it? Terrorist activity perhaps? (And, yes, Palestinian sucidie bombers are terrorists.)

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

The Sports Page Is no Longer Safe

For cripes sake! The Sports section is not immune from the NYT's efforts to advance the gay agenda.

This is the main article for the day judged by it's 2 pages in the electronic edition. This is no way, shape or form should be in the Sports section. The article is a gay rights piece and should be in the National section if it warrants attention in the first place.

The more and more I read the NYT, the more and more I am convinced that it does not share my priorities, and judging the results of the various votes on gay marriage, the rest of the country's priorities either.

I hold a Seinfeldian view on homosexuality. I don't believe there is anything wrong with it. What I am unable to conclude is whether the right to marriage is immutable. I already know that marriage is an r-i-t-e, though.

All that aside, why must gay marriage, and there is no doubt that this issue permeates the article, be on the Sports page?

Monday, September 20, 2004

The most recent CBS/NYT News Polls shows President George W. Bush now leading the junior Senator from Massachusetts, John F. Kerry, 50-42 amongst registered voters. His lead increases slightly (50-41) with “likely” voters.

Either result demonstrates the difficulty the Senator with have over the next 43 days in overcoming an opponent who has come out of his party’s convention with all the momentum. In the previous CBS/NYT news poll taken August 15-18, the junior Senator led 47-44 amongst registered voters and 46-45 amongst “likely” ones.

In all questions on character and leadership, the President leads John F. Kerry:

· “cares about the needs and problems of people like you” 58-54
· “same priorities for the country as you have” 47-44
· “shares the moral values most America tries to live by” 66-55
· “says what he really believes most of the time” 55-30
· “has strong qualities of leadership” 63-50
· “someone you would like personally” 60-50
· “confidence to deal wisely with an international crisis” 51-32

And on character issues that the Democrats and Kerry campaign have used to portray the President as a poor leader, he fairs very well.

· “kind of person who listens to different points of view” 62-74
· “kind of person who is able to admit when he makes mistakes” 47-47
· “confidence to deal wisely with an international crisis” 51-32

Even amongst issues that are conventionally believed to be stalwarts of Democrat policies, healthcare, unemployment, education, none are considered so important as to be named by more than 13% as the issue respondents would “most like to hear the candidates for President discuss.”

The favorability ratings show the President to be rebounding from his 2004 low of 36% following the Abu Ghraib and Fallajuh news stories. It now stands at 47% with only 38% holding a “not favorable” opinion; the first time is has been below 40% in six months.

On the other hand, the junior Senator’s favorability rating has sunk to 31% from it’s 2004 high of 38% following the Democrat national Convention. More alarming, is John Kerry’s “not favorable” rating which hit it’s all-time high for this poll of 42%, up from the 34% (plus or minus a point or so) that it stayed at since the Abu Ghraib and Fallujah stories broke.

On the main issues of the moment – terrorism, the economy, and military service in the early 70s, the President has a more mixed bag to hold. On his handling of the economy, 50% disapprove. This cannot be used to conclude, however, that it is the issue in which voters will necessary cast their vote as only 14% of respondents noted it as the main issue they’d like discussed.

49% disapprove of his handling of the situation with Iraq. Again, this cannot be used to determine how one will cast their cast on November 2nd. Only 9% cited the war as the #1 issue. 6% did cite “terrorism”. What is unclear is how mutually exclusive these two issue are.

What mitigates in the Presidents favor is his approval on handling the “campaign against terrorism”. If voters understand “campaign against terrorism” to be the “War on Terror”, then the President is in much better shape as 59% approve of work against terrorism.

Both candidates served our country during the Vietnam War. John F. Kerry in the United States Navy and President Bush in the Texas Air National Guard. Both men’s services have come under fire. Senator Kerry’s service by a group of fellow Swift Boat Veterans who have raised serious questions about his time in combat, and the President’s service by CBS News, who are in possession of now-debunked documents claiming special treatment while in the TANG.

The respondents give both men the benefit of the doubt. 71% believe the President is telling the “entire truth” or “mostly telling the truth but is hiding something”, and 78% believe the same about the Massachusetts Senator. About 10% did not know. This means there could be marginal gains to be had by both candidates in pursuing this specific line of attack. More likely, any further attacks would be reflected in more general character and leadership questions, and thus, may not be reflected in this particular question.

While the polls reflects issues in which conventional wisdom dictates that the President should be wary, one has great difficulty concluding that a candidate who enjoys overwhelming approval on issues of character and leadership will falter over the next six weeks.

Sunday, September 19, 2004

Same Poll, Different Write-up

Coming soon.

Saturday, September 18, 2004

The Corner on National Review Online

Not gonna comment on The Corner. Just a great link for all occasions.

I've stewed on the recent Rather/Blair Collaboration. NYT runs it as its main piece in today's edition. There was no change in the wording from last night's electronic edition, at least as it pertains to the quotes in my previous post.

What is slightly different is the paper provides three pie charts on the front page. Two of them cover the TANG/Vietnam experience with the "is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something" Likert option.

This is plain sloppiness. The article does not support the pie chart.

And let's address another poor technique in these questions. "entire" is a fully-loaded word. Does anyone believe anyone tells the entire truth on anything? I may be conservative and prone to simple explanations, but even I understand that type of absolute is hard to apply to any event.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Nominee for September Understatement of the Month:
Kerry Trails Bush by 8 Points in New Poll and Faces Obstacles

This is in the body of the article. (Nevermind, the flap of Bush's TANG revolves around forgeries and not his service.)

"More than 60 percent of respondents said Mr. Kerry was either 'hiding something' or 'mostly lying' in discussing his service in Vietnam. At the same time, 71 percent said that Mr. Bush was 'hiding something' or 'mostly lying' in talking about his Vietnam-era service in the National Guard, which has been the subject of news accounts raising questions about how he got a coveted out-of-combat guard assignment and whether he turned up for duty."

As is my habit, I attempt to read the actual poll questions, so I found the one from which this paragraph derived. The question was:

66. In his statements about his service in the National Guard, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

Entire truth 20%
Hiding Something 51%
Mostly lying 20%

The difference between the question asked and the result presented in the article is night and day. Basically, they asked if Bush is telling the truth or mostly doing so (71%), but ANougourney threw the out the qualifier, "mostly telling the truth but". As a result, this allows the 51% to be included with the mostly lying respondents and leads the reader to conclude the hidden things relate to lying versus telling the truth.

Simple. No nuancing needed. Sometimes simple is better and more intelligent.

To make matters worse, the same categorizations were used to ask a question about Iraq.

76. When he talks about the war in Iraq, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the turth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

Entire truth 26%
Hiding Something 49%
Mostly lying 21%
DK/NA 3%

77. When he talks about how things are going for the US in Iraq today, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the turth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

Entire truth 20%
Hiding Something 51%
Mostly lying 24%
DK/NA 4%

Here is the article's summary:

"About 80 percent of respondents said that Mr. Bush was either "hiding something" or "mostly lying" in talking about the war in Iraq."

Nevermind, ANougourney lumped the DK/NA in with the "...Hiding Something (ellipsis mine)" and "mostly lying".

Unfortunately, I believe Mr. Kurtz's explanation of liberal bias int he media is dead on. The regular readership of the NYT wants to be told things in this manner.

Thursday, September 16, 2004

Is Rather Contagious?

Bruce Bartlett seems waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off-base by suggesting Kerry could co-opt "tax reform." Advising Kerry that he could make inroads by being more pro-life would go just as far.

Kerry cannot reform the tax code at least in the sense of making it simpler. if anything, he'd be prone to making it more complez by adding more tax rates that "progressively" tax the highest wage earners. And there would no doubt be "loopholes" added to assuage those high income earners.

Nevermind that Kerry has not shown the ability to simplify anything. His campaign struggles so he adds more advisors. yeah that's the ticket!

Rather Concedes Papers Are Suspect

I've seen internet accounts that DR doesn't have a lot of watts in the bulb, but with any assertions of others intellectual capabilites, I am supsect.

However, the 2nd paragraph of this WaPo piece has made me reconsider:

"If the documents are not what we were led to believe, I'd like to break that story," Rather said in an interview last night. "Any time I'm wrong, I want to be right out front and say, 'Folks, this is what went wrong and how it went wrong.' "

Monday, September 13, 2004

The New York Times > Breaking News, World News & Multimedia

I have notified my finance department to hold off paying the NYT bill.

However, this Maybe Not? has caused me to hesitate. It makes a lot of common sense (to the extent that "self-selection" is common sensical.)

If I cancel the NYT, then the readership gets less conservative and more liberal. This necessarily makes the NYT consumer more liberal, and therefore the NYT would need to continue its coverage in the way most pleasing to its readership.

A vicious circle, and my blog title ......

Friday, September 10, 2004

Augusta Free Press : 30 questions

I hope this link lasts.

And I also hope that the Democrats have not successfully ceded the moral question to Republicans to the point that Democrats can do anything without repercussion because they are immoral/unethical as a rule. (If so, thank you Clintons!)

Thursday, September 09, 2004

Where's the Fan? Cuz the Shit's Gonna Fly!

This is the 5th paragraph is today's BTF story:

One document, a "memo to file" dated May 1972 , refers to a conversation between Colonel Killian and Lieutenant Bush when they "discussed options of how Bush can get out of coming to drill from now through November," because the lieutenant "may not have time."

This document is coming under heavy internet fire as a possible forgery. The key point being the superscript following "111". Apparently, this is a modern convention of word processing which would not have been available in the early 70s.

If so, my weekend NYT subscription is over. (The Sunday Crossword has been solved regulary for a while now.)

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Covering Your Ass

Douglas Brinkley sure seems to be back-tracking on his Kerry hagiography.

Maybe his professional reputation is going down the toilet faster than he can say "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth"?

Rich Lowry on Social Security & Election 2004 on National Review

Partila privitization of Social Security could be the greatest piece of legislation for social change ever (outside the 1964 Voting Rights Act and the Emanicpation Proclamation.)

See there will have to be some benficiary clause and here is the perfect place to back door gay marriage by allowing domestic partners to receive the proceeds upon death with the same tax treatment as spouses and children.

Thrwo-in the gains abortionists and gays would gain from a Rudy vs Shillary POTUS match-up in 2008, and there religious argumanets against them will be a thing of the past.

Bring on French Secularism! (So we can be kidnapped and beheaded for not allowing the freedom of religious expression!)

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Shifty Eyes uses "Non-Partisan" Sources

Gotta love 'im! Chris Hedges Boo! Hiss!, a NYT reporter who was booed at a commencemnet speech, is his nomination for best piece on 9/11.

Boo! Hiss!

High Hopes

I agree that Bush will win, and likely with well over 50%. but I think is will be an up-and-down race with the polls naroowing and widening for several weeks.

In the end, John Kerry protested against Vietnam and was a useful idiot for the NV and Communists. There is no getting around that.

Friday, September 03, 2004

Telling the Future

A very tough gig. The jobs number was almost right on.

And given the uncertainty of predictions, you should have know the jobs number would have been right on target from this line:

"The only reasonable prediction oe can make is that it is unlikely to come anywhere near predictions."

Oh, Canada

Ol' Shifty Eyes is a fucking loon!

(And Hastert's insinuation was low.)

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