Tuesday, October 05, 2004
The 1st post-debate polls:
Newsweek RV Kerry 49-46 sans Nadar
Zogby LV Bush 46-45
USAToday/CNN/Gallup LV tied 49-49
CBS/NYT LV tied 47-47
Pew LV Bush 49-44
ABC/WaPO LV Bush 51-46
While JMM concludes
"Kerry got a big bounce out of the debate", I contend, he got a small "bounce". The question is whether or not it is the type of bounce one would see when a brick is dropped or whether it is one where a superball is dropped.
As CW claims "undecideds" break against the incumbent (and the sitting President's party doesn't win the Senate in mid-terms elections either!), I see anything with high single digit "undecideds" as leading to a Bush W.
If 75% go to Kerry and Bush has 48%+, then the 25% of "undecideds" would push Bush over 50%. This is, of course, massively caveated by the Electoral College.
Newsweek RV Kerry 49-46 sans Nadar
Zogby LV Bush 46-45
USAToday/CNN/Gallup LV tied 49-49
CBS/NYT LV tied 47-47
Pew LV Bush 49-44
ABC/WaPO LV Bush 51-46
While JMM concludes
"Kerry got a big bounce out of the debate", I contend, he got a small "bounce". The question is whether or not it is the type of bounce one would see when a brick is dropped or whether it is one where a superball is dropped.
As CW claims "undecideds" break against the incumbent (and the sitting President's party doesn't win the Senate in mid-terms elections either!), I see anything with high single digit "undecideds" as leading to a Bush W.
If 75% go to Kerry and Bush has 48%+, then the 25% of "undecideds" would push Bush over 50%. This is, of course, massively caveated by the Electoral College.
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