Monday, October 04, 2004

The Kerry campaign has the momentum of the 4th estate behind it. As a result, the sinking feeling Bush supporters have won't go away until the media waters become unmuddied from the debate coverages.

This should occur around the 21nd of October. The debate and the post-debate polls will run the newscycles until then.

Let me lead you to water.

Sept 30 is the 1st debate. October 1 is the actual reporting on it with commentary. The 2nd and 3rd are all commentary. On the 3rd through 5th or 6th, polls come out. Each one is the main news of that day.

Unfortunately, debate #2 is Oct 6th. This overlaps with the 1st post-debate polls.

The 2nd post-debate polls will hit the 4th Estate on the 9th thru the 12th. Each leading the news coverage.

The 3rd debate is on the 13th and its post-debate polls hit on the 16th thru 18th. A couple days of poll leadership runs us to the 21st of October.

At this point, the campaigns will begin to lead the news cycle. Basically 10 or so days for either campaign to get his message out.

As of now, Evan Thomas et al make that last neutral comment de facto Bush.

I wonder if the 4.5th Estate, or the blogosphere, can influence that?

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