Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Making Sense of It All?

Seeing Zogby go decidedly Bush whilst Rasmussen and ABC/WaPo flip to Kerry is perplexing.

In trying to make sense of these, I looked at this summary and was struck by the LAT and the aforementioned ABC/WaPo polls. One has a tie amongst LV and the other shows Kerry +1.

Given ABC/WaPo changed their LV screen last week and the LAT is the West Coast bastion of Lefty-biased journalism, I posture that both polls are deriving methodology that comports with the political CW that the electorate is evenly divided. (Support ?The president was characterized as a uniter and a divider by 48 percent each.)

By starting with an assumption of an evenly split result, both polling organizations are doing their best to develop a LV model that would take the registered voter results and get a subsample of LVs that shows an even split

Why? Because the RVs are showing an advantage for Bush. When this was a typical result favoring Democrats, SOP had LV screens increasing Republican representation. Now that RV is consistently showing ahead, why wouldn't polls show Bush's lead widening using LV screens?

On November 3rd, the pollsters will either be exposed or will be validated. Unfortunately, guessing is not proof of expertise.

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