Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Ohio
Mystery Pollster has a good write-up on the differing poll results for Ohio.
A very relevant point made is the results are in the gray area where the MoE figure could account for every result. (His most relevant point revolves around the incumbent rule.)
An important consideration which was not made, but subsequently done so by me in the comments section regards the polling days involved in each poll. The Fox poll is the only one that does not include any days prior to October 17. A perfectly dissonance-soothing explanation would consider the Fox poll the most up-to-date and therefore the most relevant.
However, with the dramatic movement in the three-day tracking polls of Zobgyand WaPo where over a day or two the race goes from Bush up to tied to Bush up leads me to conclude that the Fox poll could be less indicative of the current status of the race than my attempts at dissonance-soothing would suggest. (Hmmmmmmmmm. No Kerry up in these tracking polls? Maybe some soothing is still possible.)
Mystery Pollster has a good write-up on the differing poll results for Ohio.
A very relevant point made is the results are in the gray area where the MoE figure could account for every result. (His most relevant point revolves around the incumbent rule.)
An important consideration which was not made, but subsequently done so by me in the comments section regards the polling days involved in each poll. The Fox poll is the only one that does not include any days prior to October 17. A perfectly dissonance-soothing explanation would consider the Fox poll the most up-to-date and therefore the most relevant.
However, with the dramatic movement in the three-day tracking polls of Zobgyand WaPo where over a day or two the race goes from Bush up to tied to Bush up leads me to conclude that the Fox poll could be less indicative of the current status of the race than my attempts at dissonance-soothing would suggest. (Hmmmmmmmmm. No Kerry up in these tracking polls? Maybe some soothing is still possible.)
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