Friday, October 22, 2004

Poll by party identification

The latest Detroit News tracking poll for the state of Michigan has Bush up 45.9-43.3 amongst registered voters.

As this recent season of polls has shown, the party identification breakdown is important. In 2002, Michiganders, self-identify as 49% Democrats and 43% Republicans. The tracking poll shows 40.9% Republicans and 40.3% Democrats.

There is a very obvious conclussion that can be drawn. The tracking poll is clearly under-representing Democrats.

A mitigating factor may be involved though. In 2000, the same percent of Michigeese self-identified as Democrats, but the percent of self-identified Republicans rose from 37% to 43%. Is there a siginifciant trend towards Republicans in Michigan? The only sure answer will come on November 2.

One thread (cord? cable?) that Republicans can grasp (firmly? self-delusionally?) is the breakdown of Strong/Weak Democrat or Republican identification. The S/W Democrat combination stays constant at 34%. However, the Strong D designation decreased by two.

For the Republican S/W combination, it was 24% in 2000 and 30% for 2002. A very striking (clearly loaded descriptor) increase. Strong R went up two and Weak R went up 4.
Where did these 6% come from? Most come from Independents as the decrease of 4 flowed directly into the Republican self-i.d. Democrats and Independent Republicans remained the same from 2000 to 2002. (The other 2% look like rounding error.)

False hope or further intuition justification?

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