Friday, October 29, 2004

U. S. Electoral College

Using this calculator shows Bush winning 278-260 if he wins the exact same states he did in 2000. The is an extremely dubious assumption because it assumes that the exact same dynamics are in play this year.

That is just not the case. 9/11/01 is the major landscaper, but there is also a behavior adjustment by both parties to their demonstrated weaknesses in 2000 and their opponent's demonstrated strengths. As a Republican, the GOTV effort is a prime example.

The CW is wrong because they don't recognize this, and in this sense the MSM bias will work againtst them. The battleground in 2000 was Florida with OH and PA getting lumped in. All the coverage in about these three states.

The real battlegrounds this year are the upper Mid-West - Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. All of these states went for Gore. This represents 44 EC votes. Here is where the election will be decided.

As proof that the CW is perservating on 2000, John Zogby states in a Daily News column today, the Kerry will win. He shows Bush up in Michigan and Minnesota (27 EC votes) and losing in OH (20 EC votes). Explain how Bush nets +7 EC votes and loses when he starts with an 18 EC vote lead?

The story of the Bush win will center on the upper Mid-West.

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