Monday, November 01, 2004
Early Voters
I seriously question whether or not the "results" of early voters are random samples of the electorate as a whole. If they are not, then they are worthless pieces of information when trying to conduct a poll of the entire population.
In Fox's Florida poll, a Kerry +5 result occurs. 37% of the sample reports they have voted early. If the Kerry figure is wrong, I am lead towards a conclusion that early voters favored Kerry not that early voters are representative of the Florida population as a whole.
I seriously question whether or not the "results" of early voters are random samples of the electorate as a whole. If they are not, then they are worthless pieces of information when trying to conduct a poll of the entire population.
In Fox's Florida poll, a Kerry +5 result occurs. 37% of the sample reports they have voted early. If the Kerry figure is wrong, I am lead towards a conclusion that early voters favored Kerry not that early voters are representative of the Florida population as a whole.
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