Monday, November 08, 2004

There has been a lot of teeth-gnoshing over why Bush won. The initial reaction has centered around "moral values."

As it was cited as the most important issue by voters, this is not surprising. However, as with any question which is open to broad interpretation, being the most-cited means little. Only 22% cited "moral values." The exit poll categorized the various answers into 7 broad categories that accounted for 93% of those polled. Being number 1 amongst seven does not necessarily mean that one has received a majority.

As I previously stated here, the mutual-exclusivity of "Iraq" and "terrorism" is not fully-explainable, but the exit polls did so because the Kerry campaign attempted to separate the two. As Bush received almost double the support of those citing "Iraq" as Kerry did of those citing "terrorism", I hold that "Iraq" was not mutually exclusive from "terrorism," and the Kerry campaign's attempt to make Iraq distinct from pan-Arab terrorism failed. As "terrorism" was cited by 19%, there is a good chance that it was #1. If so, then the exit poll was wrong on this count also. (the first being Kerry winning.)

More interestingly, is the lack of attention given to those who cited "health care" as is #1 reason - 8%! Maybe the reason the Democrats continue to lose is they believe health care a winning issue but misinterpret it being at the top of a "most important issue" question with it being the most important issue of the majority.

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