Thursday, October 28, 2004

Mystery Pollster: Likely Voters V: More Gallup

We're basically trying to get a read on the electorate as of the day that we're polling," said Jeffrey Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, "not necessarily trying to predict what's going to happen on Election Day itself.

No kidding.

A possible way to tamp volatility would be to poll several days after significant political events. This would reduce any event-inspired exuberance and give a more accurate reading. This is something I examined earlier in the month

Unfortunately, I see no way to project the Election Day likely voter without asking the same types of questions Gallup does. Past behavior and verbal indications of future behavior is all we have. And it is always less than 100%. (See stock market prognostication and weather forecasts.)

A lot of the complaining is just dissonance-soothing exercises.

More interestingly is the October Surprise which comports perfectly with the last minute bombshell that sways voters. If it did not have an immediate effect it would cease to be done. Why did CBS want to run the milk carton explosives story so close to the election?

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